Can AI predict earthquakes?

Predicting earthquakes with a high degree of accuracy remains a formidable scientific challenge, but there is growing optimism among researchers that artificial intelligence (AI) could play a pivotal role in earthquake prediction. By analyzing extensive datasets of seismic activity, AI has shown promise in identifying patterns that could potentially forecast earthquake occurrences.

A significant breakthrough was made by researchers from the University of Texas (UT) at Austin who conducted experiments with an AI algorithm. This algorithm achieved a remarkable 70% accuracy in predicting earthquakes a week before they occurred. These trials were conducted over a seven-month period in China, and this success has led scientists to believe that a robust AI system has the potential to reliably predict earthquakes.

Sergey Fomel, a member of the research team, characterized earthquake prediction as the “holy grail” of seismology. While acknowledging that global predictions are still a distant goal, he emphasized that their achievement demonstrates the solvability of a problem that was once deemed impossible.

Can AI predict earthquakes?

The AI system demonstrated its ability to predict the location and intensity of 14 earthquakes within a 321-kilometer radius of their actual occurrence. Importantly, it missed just one earthquake.

Although a 70% accuracy rate may not appear exceptionally high on the surface, it is a significant leap forward considering the lack of alternative earthquake prediction systems. Researchers believe that even with this level of accuracy, substantial economic and human losses can be averted, and global earthquake preparedness can be greatly enhanced.

The next phase of research involves applying this model in regions with high earthquake risk, such as Italy, Japan, Greece, Turkey, and California in the United States. By doing so, the AI algorithm is expected to improve its predictive capabilities, as AI models rely on extensive datasets to enhance their accuracy.

References: https://www.indiatimes.com/technology/science-and-future/ai-predicts-70-earthquakes-before-they-occur-617174.html