If global warming reaches or exceeds two degrees Celsius by the year 2100, Joshua Pearce, a researcher at the University of Western Ontario, suggests that a substantial portion of the responsibility for the potential death of around one billion individuals, primarily from less affluent backgrounds, over the next century may rest with wealthier populations.
The oil and gas industry, encompassing numerous highly profitable and influential corporations globally, is directly and indirectly accountable for over 40% of carbon emissions. This has a significant impact on billions of people, particularly those residing in remote and resource-poor communities.
A novel study proposes bold energy policies that could lead to immediate and significant reductions in carbon emissions. It recommends increased involvement from governments, corporations, and citizens to expedite the process of decarbonizing the global economy, with the aim of minimizing the projected loss of human lives.
Human-induced climate change could kill 1 billion people in the next century, new study finds
Lead author Joshua Pearce, the John M. Thompson Chair in Information Technology and Innovation at Western University, expresses concern about the unacceptable potential for mass casualties, especially among future generations. Pearce acknowledges that climate scientists often err on the side of caution when reporting their models’ findings but emphasizes the urgency of the situation.
The study, published in the journal Energies, is a comprehensive analysis of more than 180 scientific articles. Pearce and co-author Richard Parncutt from the University of Graz, Austria, identified a common estimate known as the “1,000-ton rule” within the peer-reviewed literature. This rule suggests that approximately one premature death can be attributed to the burning of roughly 1,000 tons of fossil carbon.
Pearce highlights the importance of relatable metrics, indicating that units like megawatts or parts per million of carbon dioxide can be challenging to comprehend for the general population. In contrast, the concept of human lives affected is universally understandable. He urges a change in language and measurements to foster better comprehension among policymakers and industry leaders.
Taking the 1,000-ton rule seriously, Pearce calculates that anthropogenic global warming could result in the premature deaths of approximately one billion individuals over the next century. This alarming projection reinforces the need for swift action.
Human-induced climate change could kill 1 billion people in the next century, new study finds
As an expert in energy policy, Pearce believes that reshaping how we discuss and measure the impacts of global warming will help stakeholders grasp the severity of the fossil fuel reliance issue. He emphasizes that as climate models become more accurate, the harm being inflicted on future generations will become increasingly attributed to present actions.
This realization places a spotlight on the liabilities associated with greenhouse gas emissions, prompting the study to advocate for an aggressive approach to energy efficiency and renewable sources. The study outlines key areas for energy policy improvements:
- Enhanced energy conservation and efficiency across various sectors, supported by government initiatives.
- Complete substitution of high carbon fuels with zero carbon alternatives from renewable sources like hydropower, wind, and solar.
- Advancement of technologies for carbon waste management and natural capture and storage of CO2.
- Replacement of carbon subsidies with carbon taxes.
Pearce acknowledges that while predicting the future is challenging, the 1,000-ton rule offers a rough estimate, suggesting a range of deaths per 1,000 tons. Regardless of the precise numbers, the call for urgent action remains clear.
Pearce asserts that global warming is a life-and-death matter for billions and stresses the need for a significantly accelerated energy transition, starting immediately.
References: Joshua M. Pearce et al, Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy, Energies (2023). DOI: 10.3390/en16166074
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